The NBA playoffs got underway on April 19. Although every team technically holds a chance, there are always a few contenders that stand out amongst the pack.
It can be hard to determine whose roster is amongst the contenders, but legendary coach Phil Jackson came up with a theory. He called it the 40-20 rule. A contending roster should win 40 games before it loses 20. Historically, the only teams since 2000 to break this rule and win a championship are the 2004 Pistons (ironically beat Phil Jackson), the 2006 Heat, and the 2021 Bucks. This season, three teams, the Thunder, Cavaliers, and Celtics, all achieved 40 wins before 20 losses.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder won 68 games in the regular season. This record will give them home home-court advantage against every team. This is their second year as contenders. Last season ended with a disappointing second-round exit vs. the Mavericks. However, the roster is more experienced. They also added Isaiah Hartenstein and former NBA champion Alex Caruso. These moves helped fix their biggest weaknesses from 2024, which were paint defense besides Chet Holmgren and experience.
The Thunder are led by NBA PPG leader Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Alexander has had yet another MVP-level season. He’s averaged 30+ PPG for the first seed contenders in the west in back-to-back seasons. Alexander is also a good defender. However, the Thunder are loaded with defensive help with Caruso, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Hartenstein, and Holmgren. If you believe in the adage that defense wins championships, the Thunder would be a very smart pick. No team has the mix of perimeter and paint defense that the Thunder has.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers proved they were contenders very quickly with their 15-0 start. Later on in the season, they went on a 16-game winning streak. These two streaks helped the Cavaliers reach 40 wins before 20 losses. They hold the first seed in the Eastern Conference, which gives them home-court advantage in the first three rounds of the playoffs.
They were the fourth seed in 2023 and 2024, leading to a first and second round exit, respectively. The Cavaliers are led by star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell is what transformed the Cavaliers from a lottery team to a playoff team in 2023. Meanwhile, the hiring of coach Kenny Atkinson has helped turn them into championship contenders.
Mitchell has had several big playoff performances, but this is his first time working for a true contender. The Cavaliers had two other All-Stars this season. The first was point guard Darius Garland, who found new life thanks to coach Atkinson. The other was Evan Mobley, who has a good chance of winning the defensive player of the year. Out of all the major contending teams, the Cavs have the most depth. They will need contributions from everyone to win their second championship in franchise history.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics were the default contenders heading into this season, as they were the defending champions. They had a somewhat quiet offseason, focusing mostly on keeping the guys they currently had. The Celtics had a good season overall, but have gone on some cold streaks. They have gotten better in one way, though. Payton Pritchard has stepped up and become a sixth man of the year candidate. The Celtics’ path to a championship is the same as last season. They will rely on the “jays”, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brow, for scoring.
Jrue Holiday and Derrick White can contribute on both ends at the guard position. Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis are mobile big men who can defend the paint. They are a versatile team that can play defense like the 2004 Pistons or shoot like the 2016 Warriors. They are ready for whatever the playoffs throw at them. The Jays are young, but most of the supporting cast is on the wrong side of 30. It’s unclear how many shots they will have with this roster, so they’ll be looking to capitalize on all this talent.
Although I focused on the three 40-20 teams, that doesn’t mean they are the only contenders. As I said earlier, there have been some exceptions. However, history is not in the rest of the league’s favor. A team like the Lakers or Nuggets has the talent and experience to shock the big three contenders and win a championship.
Respect My Region (RMR) is a leading lifestyle platform dedicated to bridging the gap between cannabis, music, and culture. Through innovative events, authentic content, and a commitment to advocacy, RMR continues to set the standard for modern cannabis storytelling
Feature Image via Wikimedia Commons
