Nadeshot’s epic case opening session on Twitch and YouTube last week might have just inspired the entire North American Counter-Strike 2 (CS2) scene to come back (probably not), but anyone who likes CS2 and gambling we were treated to an epic three days of case-opening shenanigans. It also opened my eyes to the billion-dollar economy that CS2 case openings prop up, something I knew almost nothing about before Nadeshot, TimTheTatMan, Shroud, and Trainwrecks took me down the rabbit hole.
What is Counter-Strike?
The Counter-Strike series is easily the most popular and successful tactical shooter of all time, but it’s even more than that. Counter-Strike has been a global staple in the gaming and Esports scene since its first release in 2000. Helmed by Valve, the game has been iterated on several times (Counter-Strike: Source, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, and Counter-Strike 2), but the core of the game has remained pretty much the same. As of writing this, CS2 has 854,747 concurrent players. The next closest game is Dota 2, (also a Valve game), which has 380,032. CS2’s dominance on PC can’t be understated here.
Case Opening 101
Opening cases on CS:GO or CS2 is essentially a virtual slot machine that rewards in-game cosmetic items. These items are locked behind themed padlocked cases and can only be opened with matching keys. The cases and keys must be purchased separately, and they can be purchased in-game and from third-party dealers who collect and resell cases and keys.
Cases are released in sets like “Fever” cases or “Dreams and Nightmares” cases. Dreams and nightmares are exactly what case opening sessions are made out of, as I would quickly find out.
Once the case is unlocked, the dial spins like a slot machine and reveals your prize. It’s usually always blue. Sometimes you get a pink or red, but what you’re looking for is “gold, gold, gold,” as chat would say. The chances of getting gold are 0.26 percent or 1 in 385.
The ultra-rare red and gold items hold insane monetary value in USD. All of the items can be traded and sold through online auction houses. Lesser items can also be traded up for chances at better items. The item’s value is dictated by not only its rarity but also its “pattern template,” “wear rating,” and “exterior,” which is the item’s quality level in-game. A factory-new exterior is the best; a battle-scarred exterior is bad. Wear ratings and exteriors drastically dictate the value of these items. When streamers say “check the float,” that’s what they’re talking about.
For example, during Nadeshot’s stream, he opened a pair of “Sport Gloves” with a “Hedge Maze” pattern and a “minimal wear exterior” that is valued at around USD 17,000. That’s just a drop in the vat of money that these openings have produced in the last few years.
Why Does Anyone Care? $$$$$ and Content
Long story short, this is all for in-game clout. Gamers love flexing pretty pixels. Whether it be character skins or weapon skins, or emotes, gamers can’t wait to spend money on things that add a level of expression and uniqueness to their experience. Some people flex their Rolexes, others flex Factory New Hedge Maze Gloves while they’re shooting your dead body and tea bagging you endlessly.
You pair that with the incredibly fun and addictive nature of gambling, well, that’s how CS2 brings in a monthly average of $80 – $100 million from case openings alone. Players opened 32 million cases, for a grand total of $82 million in March. CS.Money reported that Valve made one billion dollars on keys alone in 2023. I could keep giving you stats but the long and short of it is that Valve makes a metric fuck ton of money through keys and cases.
What drives the case openings? Content creators like Nadeshot and Trainwrecks that take their viewers on degenerate dopamine roller coasters relatively free of charge. Case opening content is massive right now on platforms like Twitch, Kick, TikTok, and YouTube. A couple of weeks ago, Nadeshot was averaging around 3000 viewers playing Warzone, but while he was ripping cases like a lounge lizard spins slots with cigarette-stained fingers in Las Vegas, he was averaging 9,000 viewers. I believe at one time, he had around 20,000 people in his chat, and he gained thousands of new subscribers in the process.
Counter-Strike historians like Arrow said that Nadeshot’s run might be one of the most historic runs in case opening history, which is why this Anime arc garnered so much attention in the gaming / live streaming space. The CS community can’t get enough.
Content creators like Trainwrecks, ohniPixel, and XQC have used CS2 case openings as pillars for wildly successful careers as content creators. Watching people who can afford to spend and lose this kind of money is entertaining. It’s like watching your friends go on a massive run at the blackjack table.
Gambling: Mostly Terrible, But Also Fun (Sometimes)
Gambling is mostly all bad. I know this, most people know this. I know people whos lives have been impacted detrementally because members of their family were degenerate fucking gambling addicts. Gambling is not a joke; it is not something to be taken lightly. It’s something that has the power to hijack your brain’s reward systems in a seriously twisted way. The way gambling creates compulsion loops in your mind is absolute crippling for some people.
With all that being said, it’s still a sick level of fun. What does it all mean? I have no idea. I am not sitting here saying gambling is good, but I’m also not going to say that it’s not exhilarating under the right circumstances. Why does it say about me that I love watching degenerate gamblers go deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole? That’s a question for my therapist.
All I know is when Nadeshot finally hit that first gold after 3200 cases, I jumped out of my seat and cheered and celebrated with thousands of other scum bags in that chat, it was electric.
After one billion dollars worth of cases were purchased in 2023, only $422 million in items were opened. That’s terrible ROI. This kind of habit only pays off when you’re one of these ohnePixel, Trainwrecks, or Nadeshot characters that have hundreds of thousands of dollars of disposable income.
Nadeshot reiterated this at the end of his stream, that people in his unique position can do this for entertainment and content, while the rest of us should stay far away. Even after spending $40,000 on cases, Nadeshot still ended up in the green when you take into account the subscriptions and ad revenue from YouTube and Twitch, and the resale value of the six gold items he pulled. It was an incredibly profitable week for Nadeshot, and he said as much on stream.
But you’re not Nadeshot, I’m not Nadeshot, and opening cases is pretty much a zero-sum game by design. “Whales” like Nadeshot and Trainwrecks are built to thrive at this particular hobby because losing $100,000 here and there, while bad, isn’t the end of the world. Whereas if you or I gamble away six digits in three days, divorce papers are filed, post haste, and I’m getting kicked out of Grandpa’s house.
