A new year means a new Oscars ceremony. On March 12th, the 95th Academy Awards will take place and for the first time in a while, the categories are hard to pick. Previous years may have had a definitive pick, but the nominees of the 2022 year are loaded in every single category. Although it would be excessive to run through every single category and every single nomination, I wanted to share a few of my predictions for the winners of the 2023 Oscars. Since I will not be talking about every nomination in every category, I will link each category in their respective sections for you to check out the full list.
2023 Oscars Predictions
Best Picture
Academy Prediction: “The Fabelmans” / “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Nolen’s Favorite: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Admittedly, I have not seen all of the nominees for this year’s Best Picture category. I will never be able to see an entire list of films the Oscars deem the best picture, and I am okay with that. However, of the films I did manage to see, there are some strong contenders. Steven Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical film “The Fabelmans” unfortunately did not make it across my viewings but think about it, why would the Academy not pick this? They love Spielberg. Whether Steven walks away with the award is another story, but they will nominate anything he makes. Throw in the fact that this is loosely inspired by his upbringing and passion for filmmaking, and it’s a done deal.
I don’t think I even need to watch the movie to know it’s a top contender. If “The Fabelmans” somehow manages to get snubbed, then the next logical place to look is “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Although the Oscars have an infamous history of giving the award to something that has not swept every other award show, a comedy, or an action film, there could be some potential here. The film made a huge splash when it debuted in theaters. The movie is STILL being talked about to this day and it is almost an entire year old. Worst/best case scenario we could see a repeat of 2016 when “Spotlight” won Best Picture and Screenplay.
Stephanie Hsu (Left), Ke Huy Quan (Center Left), Michelle Yeoh (Center Right), and James Hong (Right) in “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” Image provided courtesy of A24 studios.
Personally, I am rooting for “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Director Martin McDanagh may not have nabbed the win in 2018 with “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” but I think his chances are greater with this film. The chances of this film winning are not significantly low, nor impossible, but given how unique this film is to everything else nominated, I don’t see it happening. This isn’t to say it will not win, but tonally it gets dark.
The simplicity of the story helps. Every single one of the performances is top tier and that helps. It also helps to have an original script that feels reflective and evergreen. Making audiences laugh then making everyone uncomfortable is a huge shift, but when done right, it helps. There is a bit at stake with this nomination. My pick may be the dark horse of the bunch, but what a stallion it is.
Actor in a Leading Role
Academy Prediction: Austin Butler for “Elvis” | Colin Farrell for “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Nolen’s Favorite: Austin Butler for “Elvis” | Colin Farrell for “The Banshees of Inisherin”
As much as it delights me to see Brendan Fraser have a career resurgence, there are only two stand out options this year. Having already won the Golden Globe for this film, Austin Butler’s performance as The King of Rock & Roll was electric. The film itself was a long and dizzying headache, so for that reason I do not see it winning Best Picture. However, Butler in leather with a microphone and gemstones is something to behold. He understood how to be as grounded and over the top as Elvis was. Typically, the Golden Globes and the Oscars give their awards to different nominees unless the performance is unanimously the best of the year. I think we could be seeing that with Austin Butler this year.
Austin Butler as Elvis Presley in “Elvis.” Image provided courtesy of Warner Bros. Studios.
Should this not happen, and a different nominee is chosen, it will most certainly be Colin Farrell. With respect to the other nominees, none of them are as promising as this nominee for this film. Farrell gives us the full range of emotions in this. He’s funny and charming, but also complains about pretty much everything. By the end we see how talented this one man is in this one role.
Best Actress
Academy Prediction: Cate Blanchett for “Tar”
Nolen’s Favorite: Cate Blanchett for “Tar”
It’s Cate Blanchett, do I even have to talk about why this is going to happen? Yes? Alright, fine. Todd Fields’ previous film “Little Children” had an incredible script. Although “Tar” falls onto the list of movies I still haven’t seen yet, there isn’t a shadow of a doubt that Fields wrote another strong script. Take another strong script and pair it with one of the greatest actresses of all time, and there is no way this isn’t a powerhouse performance.
Due to my unfortunate lack of viewing, I don’t think it would be fair to discount the strength of other performances. Although “Blonde” was messy and bloated with anger, I think Ana De Armas deserved this nomination for her performance as Marilyn Monroe. Michelle Yeoh is a very strong contender to win this as well. Personally, I am a huge fan of Michelle Yeoh, and would love to see her win an Academy Award. She is just so good at everything she does. Michelle WIlliams is another name I am a huge fan of and seeing her performance in “The Fabelmans” is exciting to see. Finally, although I am not familiar with “To Leslie” I am familiar with Andrea Riseborough and would not be upset in the slightest if she won the award.
Cate Blanchett as Lydia Tar in “Tar.” Image provided courtesy of Focus Features.
Of all the categories this year that is the closest and tightest race it is this category. These names in these films are a murderer’s row of talent, and, to me, there doesn’t seem to be a wrong answer this year. Some are better than others, but again, nothing wrong (except “Blonde”).
Actor in a Supporting Role
Academy Prediction: Barry Keoghan or Brendan Gleeson for “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Nolen’s Favorites: Barry Keoghan or Brendan Gleeson for “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Ke Huy Quan for “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
If it seems I have a personal affinity for “Inisherin” then I will let you in on a little secret: I liked the movie quite a bit. Aside from my own enjoyment of the film, every character in this film brings their unique personality to the table. Within “Inisherin,” Brendan Gleeson brings a sort of frustrating independence to Colm. I say frustrating, because as much as you want to see him leave Colin Farrell’s annoying ass, it’s hard not to also want him to be free and succeed. The same goes for Barry Keoghan, but in the opposite direction. Dominic is a heartbreakingly sweet character. Seeing Dominic get roped into the problems between these characters felt bad, but he brought his own important personality to the story.
Barry Keoghan as Dominic in “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Image provided courtesy of Searchlight Pictures
To see either of these men win would not be a shock or feel like a robbery over the other. Although this is both a personal preference and a prediction for what The Oscars will choose, there is still another nominated performance that I think could eek the win. The Academy may just be nominating him to be nice, but I really think Ke Huy Quan’s performance as Waymond Wang in “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is in close contention. All three performances were funny, sweet, charming, and to varying degrees- sad. If any of those three men walk away with a golden statue then my night will be satisfied.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Academy Prediction: Anyone
Nolen’s Favorite: Kerry Condon for “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Oy with the Irish already! This category is hard to figure out. Stacked from top to bottom, the Best Supporting Actress category is crazy. Either Jamie Lee Curtis or Stephanie Hsu for “Everything Everywhere All At Once” could walk away with the award. Hong Chau gets better in every performance she does and could easily walk away with her award from “The Whale.”
Angela Bassett as Queen Ramonda in the Oscar nominated film “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” Image provided courtesy of Marvel Studios.
Angela Bassett is Angela Bassett. As much as I don’t love Marvel films getting nominated for Oscars, I wouldn’t be too upset if Angela Bassett wins an Oscar. Kerry Condon is my favorite pick to win this year. All of the above options feel correct to me, but Kerry Condon is the most correct choice in my brain. What else can I say about these nominees that don’t already speak for themselves? The mountain of talent in this category is so intriguing that I will be paying extra attention to this category.
Best Animated Feature
Academy Prediction: “Turning Red”
Nolen’s Favorite: “Guillermo Del Torro’s Pinocchio”
Disney is always going to be at the top of the mountain of animation studios. This needs to end. Don’t get me wrong, I still weep like a baby when the things that shouldn’t have emotions, have emotions. Not since “Into the Spider-Verse” has an animated feature not made by Disney won the award. Even before that, the last non-disney animated film that won was “Rango” in 2012. The problem lies not only in the nominated films, but also in the films not nominated. That’s a problem for another day, but the bottom line is this year has several promising alternatives to the Mickey Company.
The one I am pulling for the most and hope to see be honored for the achievement it is, is “Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio.” “Turning Red” is a good movie. That’s it, it’s a good movie. Laughs were had, a lesson was learned, and fun was experienced. “Turning Red” was a thoroughly enjoyable time, but “Pinocchio” creates existential dread.
David Bradley (Left) as Geppetto and Gregory Mann (Right) as Pinocchio in Guillermo Del Toro’s “Pinocchio.” | Image provided courtesy of Netflix Studios.
My biggest fear with this category is The Academy will continue their streak of picking the big and safe option. Del Toro may have won Best Picture back in 2019 with “The Shape of Water,” but that may not be enough. “Pinocchio” is so many things. Not only is it a fresh take on innocence, positivity, existentialism, and dread, but on the story of Pinocchio. There are copious reasons why “Pinocchio” should win, but unfortunately the reality of this category is how nearly unbeatable Disney is here.
Best Directing
Academy Prediction: Steven Spielberg for “The Fabelmans”
Nolen’s Favorite: Steven Spielberg for “The Fabelmans”
Many of these predictions and personal hopes may all be the same films and people, but there are reasons for each. None of these predictions could come true and I think that is where some of the excitement/ disappointment comes from with this award show. The nominees for Best Directing may be limited to a few names overshadowed by one larger one, but that name feels right this time. It’s rare that Spielberg being nominated for Best Directing is a gimme. “The Fabelmans” is a personal story about his life and love for film.
Steven Spielberg (Left) and Paul Dano (right) in the Oscar nominated film “The Fabelmans.” | Image provided courtesy of Amblin Entertainment.
How could a Steven Spielberg movie about Steven Spielberg directed by Steven Spielberg not be good enough? This is not to say the other films in this category are lesser- not at all. Without going down the line and comparing them all to each other, there is a lot of talent here. All of these men are good directors. Their films all are representations of their styles and stories they want to tell. It’s hard to compare any of the films and the directors to each other since they all stand for something different.
That being said, films that showcase love- true, genuine, through and through love for the life being lived- are the stories that stand out the most. “The Fabelmans” is that film. Maybe the age of classic cinema is long gone, but the feeling of real love will never leave movies.
Those are my thoughts, predictions, and hopes. What movie do you hope to see win an award on March 12th? Which actors and actresses are your picks for the big awards? What categories are you looking forward to seeing the most?
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